Quantifying COVID-Driven Risks to Office Markets – Tracing Possible Mechanisms of Distress

In their latest joint research, Daniel Warcholak of CWCapital and Victor Calanog, PhD of Moody’s Analytics quantify COVID-driven risks to office markets.

What actually happened in 2020? Where will the distress be felt in 2021? What approaches can we take to think through what might happen in the intermediate term and then over the long run? Which loan portfolios (broadly defined) and geographic areas present relatively greater risk, and why?

They took a look at each office property and calculated two additional measures of risk for the loans:

Break-Even Occupancy
Max Rent Drop

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